Deterministic and Probabilistic Safety Analysis

Abstract

The main theme of this chapter is the process and evolution of deterministic and probabilistic safety analyses that have played a backbone role in assuring public health and safety in the peaceful uses of nuclear power. The chapter begins with a discussion of the origin of nuclear power safety analysis together with the overall perspectives of both deterministic and probabilistic approaches that are still prevalent, although there is an increasing trend in application of probabilistic safety analysis in safety-related decision making. Deterministic approaches, such as the defense-in-depth or safety margin, are regarded as a means to cope with uncertainties associated with adequacy of safety features. As probabilistic methods and applications gain maturity and acceptance, the uncertainties associated with safety features are measured and described probabilistically. The chapter concludes with a detailed discussion of the probabilistic safety assessment and its uses in nuclear power safety analysis.