Tracking the Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Plecia nearctica (Diptera, Bibionidae) in the USA Using MaxEnt and GIS

Abstract

Plecia nearctica Hardy, commonly referred to as lovebugs, is a species of march fly with a subtropical American distribution. The northern range limits of P. nearctica could alter due to climate change, which is a worldwide issue. It has been reported that flowers utilized by P. nearctica are not visited by pollinators, which may negatively impact foraging activity particularly when resources are limited. This study used 933 occurrence records of P. nearctica in the USA to predict its potential range expansion by 2050. To predict potential habitat change we applied well-established modeling procedures using both MaxEnt and geographical information system (GIS). Six environmental variables, two climate models, and two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP126 and SSP585) were used in the analysis. The model performance was excellent with a high True Skilled Statistic (=0.75) value. The predicted potential distribution and range expansion of P. nearctica in 2050 includes the Gulf Coast and the Southeastern and Western regions of the USA. However, results suggest that most of the Central and Northern USA are unlikely to provide suitable habitat for this pest and have no reason for concern about interactions between pollinators and P. nearctica.