Socioeconomic Impact Evaluation of the Drought in Irrigated Lands in Southern Spain: A Multicriteria Decision Making Approach

Abstract

The severe drought present in Andalusia (Southern Spain) since 1993 determined the complete absence of a water supply for agricultural lands for the following two agricultural years. This situation forced farmers to decide to sow crops with lower hydric demand requirements in irrigated lands. This long period of drought was superimposed by the beginning of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) Reform and this implies that the degree of the socioeconomic impact of the latter cannot be judged just by comparing the income and the labour generated between the pre-drought period (1986 to 1992) and the actual dry period (1994 and 1995). This paper aims to establish a methodology, based upon weighted goal programming, which lets us simulate the farmers' sowing decision if they had disposed of the normal water supply for irrigation, bearing in mind the new CAP institutional environment installed in the European Union. Once this simulation is obtained, we will be able to compare the theoretical sowing decision (without water constraints) for the drought biennium with the ones which occurred in reality. In this way, we will be able to determine, just by difference, the drought effects on income and labour generated. This methodology will be implemented in a practical way in La Campiña Baja district (Andalusia).