Prediction of foreign tourist visits to Indonesia using moving average and exponential smoothing methods and acceptance of admission analysis

Abstract

This paper discusses the foreign exchange analysis of foreign tourists based on the daily expenditure and the country of origin concerned. Furthermore, there will be presented statistical data analysis on the length of stay and prediction of foreign tourist arrivals to Indonesia based on the country of origin of tourists using the method of moving average and exponential smoothing. The calculation results show that the country's foreign exchange (revenue) from the tourism sector compared with the 11 largest export commodities ranked the highest in the period of 2011 to 2015 with an average of 10,224.24 in millions of USD. Based on the calculation of foreign tourist arrivals to Indonesia for the period of 2002 to 2016 an average of 7,041,315 people per year and an average growth rate of 8.55% per year for the last five years.