Justified true belief theory for intelligence analysis

Abstract

This article explores how leading theories from a key area of epistemology, the philosophical study of knowledge and belief, can support best practice in intelligence analysis. The article specifically examines how the three leading theories for establishing justification for beliefs: evidentialism, process reliabilism, and indefeasibilism, could be utilized for practical use in intelligence analysis. The consideration of these theories of Justified True Belief (JTB) in an intelligence context offers an opportunity for adjusting and building upon existing recommended methodological approaches, specifically the Assessment of Competing Hypotheses (ACH).