Volatilitas Harga Minyak Dunia dan Dampaknya Terhadap Kinerja Sektor Industri Pengolahan dan Makroekonomi Indonesia

Abstract

Fluctuations of oil prices generally affect performance of manufacturing sectors and macroeconomic condition in Indonesia. The purpose of this study is to analyze the volatility of international oil prices and its impact on manufacturing sectors and macroeconomic performance. The analytical methods used are the ARCH-GARCH model and Recursive Dynamic CGE. Volatility of international oil prices tends to vary over time (time varying) and increases. In addition, the impacts also vary among industries. Volatility of world oil prices has a tendency to provide negative influence on the Indonesian manufacturing sectors and macroeconomic performance. Nevertheless, advanced durability against shock volatility performed by the manufacturing sector tending to have linkages with the agricultural sector, such as processed food, fertilizer and pesticide.