Chile 2020: Pandemic and constitutional plebiscite

Abstract

There are two milestones that marked Chilean politics during 2020: the COVID-19 pan-demic, and the constitutional plebiscite. While the former was an absolutely unexpected phenomenon that forced an important turn in the country’s political agenda, the result of latter was foreseeable yet surprising. In fact, the plebiscite was likely to end in a triumph of the option in favour of constitutional change, but the forcefulness of the result was surpris-ing. In this article we look at both milestones in detail. On the one hand, we examine how the government in particular, and the political system in general, reacted to the emergence and development of the pandemic. On the other hand, based on a representative face-to-face survey of the population-which was carried out just after the plebiscite-we empirically show that the “Reject” vote is largely explained by the factors used in comparative studies to predict support for populist radical right (PRR) forces, while the “Approve” vote is characterized by high heterogeneity in ideological and sociological terms. In summary, the evidence presented here reinforces previous findings that show an increase in tensions within the centre-right bloc and, in turn, suggests that in Chile the conditions are ripe for the establishment of a populist radical right force.