Unraveling the bankruptcy risk-return paradox across the corporate life cycle

Abstract

Bankruptcy risk is a fundamental factor affecting the financial sustainability and smooth functioning of an enterprise. The corporate bankruptcy risk-return association is well founded in the literature. However, there is a dearth of empirical research on how this association prevails at different stages of the corporate life cycle. The present study aims to investigate the bankruptcy-risk relationship at different stages of corporate life cycle by employing Hierarchical Linear Mixed Model (HLMM) regression estimation on the data of listed non-financial Pakistani firms from 12 diverse industrial segments. We grouped the firms into introduction, growth, mature, shake-out, and decline stages of the life cycle using Dickinson's model. Empirical results assert that corporate risk-taking at the introduction stage yields superior financial performance in the future, while risk at the growth stage positively contributes to a firm's current performance. Moreover, because of risk-averse and non-diversified managerial behavior, bankruptcy risk at the mature stage is negatively associated with both current and future performance. Likewise, risk-taking at the decline stage has significant negative implications for firm performance as the managers of such firms undertake heavy investments in a turnaround attempt; however, owing to the risk-averse behavior, they may indulge in negative net present value (NPV) projects. The study findings imply that managers synchronize a firm's risk exposure with the corresponding life cycle stage to avoid going bankrupt. Moreover, excessive risk-taking during the mature and decline stages can considerably harm the financial sustainability of an enterprise. Hence, investors should exercise a degree of caution when investing in highly indebted later-stage (mature and decline) firms. Overall, bankruptcy risk-return resembles an inverted U-shaped relationship. Our results are robust and can apply to various econometric specifications.