Prediction of COVID-19 using time-sliding window: The case of piauí state - Brazil

Abstract

COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by a type of coronavirus recently discovered, called SARS-CoV-2. It has infected more than 20 million people worldwide and it is responsible for more than 737, 000 deaths. This work presents a study that explores linear regression mechanisms combined with a sliding and cumulative time window approach to provide inputs to assist in decision making for public policies, within the scope of the COVID-19 pandemic evolution, whether they are hardening or easing the isolation. Data from five states of Brazil were collected and applied a Ridge regression to predict the curve behavior of cases and deaths of COVID-19. As a result, an Explained Variance Status (EVS) up to 0.998 and 0.999 is presented, considering cases and deaths, respectively. It was concluded that sliding time window bring more information about the infection than cumulative, since public policy changes in a few time-lapse.