Optimal maintenance of naval vessels considering service life uncertainty

Abstract

Life-cycle analysis is increasingly being used to assess the structural performance and total cost incurred during the service life of naval vessels. Decision making on maintenance scheduling is based on minimizing life-cycle cost and risk metrics. However, existing life-cycle frameworks generally consider deterministic service life in the analysis process. Due to budgetary reasons, naval vessels are often required to extend their service life beyond the originally designed life. Management plans based on deterministic service life concepts do not consider the uncertainties associated with service life assessment and prediction. Structural aging can have significant effects on operational costs and risks during the service life extension. This paper presents the modeling of service life uncertainty and its impacts on the life-cycle management of naval vessels. The proposed framework is aimed to provide robust maintenance strategies addressing service life uncertainties. The presented approach is applied to fatigue of a high speed naval vessel.