Investment Risk Assessment of EPC Power Transmission and Transformation Projects under New Energy Grid Connection Based on the Owner's Perspective

Abstract

Power transmission and transformation projects (PTTPs) under new energy grid connections are different from ordinary engineering construction projects. With large investment amounts, various supporting facilities, and high safety and quality requirements, PTTPs are vulnerable to the volatility of new energy power generation, climate, geological conditions, geopolitical environment, technological changes, and other kinds of uncertain factors. Therefore, the investment risk of PTTPs under new energy grid connection is particularly considerable in the project management. For the owner of PTTPs, adopting the engineering-procurement-construction (EPC) mode is an effective attempt to solve the project construction problems faced by the owners. Thus, this paper deeply excavates the key risk points of PTTPs in the initial investment phase under the EPC mode and constructs the novel risk evaluation index system from the perspectives of economy, management, policy, society, and environment. An assessment model is established based on triangle fuzzy number-hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets (HFLTS-TFNs), the entropy method, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, which is used to evaluate the investment risk of PTTPs to provide reference for power grid corporations to control project risks. Finally, a case study in the Hexi Corridor region, Gansu Province, China, is illustrated to demonstrate the rationality of the decision model and find management risks are the most vital risk factors for PTTPs under EPC mode.