A health policy simulation model of smallpox and ebola haemorrhagic fever

Abstract

This study proposes a simulation model of a new type of infectious disease based on smallpox, Ebola haemorrhagic fever and a health policy Game. SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model has been widely used to analyse infectious diseases such as influenza, smallpox, bioterrorism, to name a few. On the other hand, Agent-based model or Individual-based model begins to spread in recent years. The model enables to represent behaviour of each person in the computer. It also reveals the spread of an infection by simulation of the contact process among people in the model. The study designs a model based on Epstein’s model in which several health policies are decided such as vaccine stocks, antiviral medicine stocks, the number of medical staff to infection control measures and so on. Furthermore, infectious simulation of Ebola haemorrhagic fever, which has not yet any effective vaccine, is also implemented in the model. As results of experiments using the model, it has been found that preventive vaccine, antiviral medicine stocks and the number of medical staff are crucial factors to prevent the spread. In addition, a health policy game against a new type of infectious disease is designed as a serious game.