Methods for integrating extraterrestrial radiation into neural network models for day-ahead pv generation forecasting

Abstract

Variability, intermittency, and limited controllability are inherent characteristics of photo-voltaic (PV) generation that result in inaccurate solutions to scheduling problems and the instability of the power grid. As the penetration level of PV generation increases, it becomes more important to mitigate these problems by improving forecasting accuracy. One of the alternatives to improving forecasting performance is to include a seasonal component. Thus, this study proposes using information on extraterrestrial radiation (ETR), which is the solar radiation outside of the atmosphere, in neural network models for day-ahead PV generation forecasting. Specifically, five methods for integrating the ETR into the neural network models are presented: (1) division preprocessing, (2) multiplication preprocessing, (3) replacement of existing input, (4) inclusion as additional input, and (5) inclusion as an intermediate target. The methods were tested using two datasets in Australia using four neural network models: Multilayer perceptron and three recurrent neural network(RNN)-based models including vanilla RNN, long short-term memory, and gated recurrent unit. It was found that, among the integration methods, including the ETR as the intermediate target improved the mean squared error by 4.1% on average, and by 12.28% at most in RNN-based models. These results verify that the integration of ETR into the PV forecasting models based on neural networks can improve the forecasting performance.