Cost-energy optimum pathway for the UK food manufacturing industry to meet the UK national emission targets

Abstract

This paper investigates and outlines a cost-energy optimised pathway for the UK food manufacturing industry to attain the national Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission reduction target of 80%, relative to 1990 levels, by 2050. The paper employs the linear programming platform TIMES, and it models the current and future technology mix of the UK food manufacturing industry. The model considers parameters such as capital costs, operating costs, efficiency and the lifetime of technologies to determine the cheapest pathway to achieve the GHG emission constraints. The model also enables future parametric analyses and can predict the influence of different economic, trade and dietary preferences and the impact of technological investments and policies on emissions. The study showed that for the food manufacturing industry to meet the emission reduction targets by 2050 the use of natural gas as the dominant source of energy in the industry at present, will have to be replaced by decarbonised grid electricity and biogas. This will require investments in Anaerobic Digestion (AD), Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plants driven by biogas and heat pumps powered by decarbonised electricity.