Managing natural disaster risk with earthquake damage scenarios and shakeout exercises: Lessons from Mw = 8 Mandi multi-stakeholders scenario in India

Abstract

Scientifically simulated Earthquake Damage Scenario (EDS) and Shakeout exercises help the policymakers to set up emergency plans for the immediate consequences and medium-long-term mitigation and prevention for a seismic event. The purpose of this study is to draw important lessons and a deeper understanding of issues and challenges in planning and implementing such exercises in a highly populous developing country like India. The Government of India developed a first-ever multi-state and multi-stakeholders EDS naming Mw = 8 Mandi and conducted a Mega Multicity Shakeout Exercise in the Western Himalayan Region during 2014. A cross-sectional research design consisting of a mainly qualitative research approach using a multi-stakeholders perspective approach was used to factor key lessons. The scenario development and shakeout exercise faced several challenges such as lack of awareness among concerned stakeholders, lack of technical know-how at the grassroot level, lack of poor coordination among various stakeholders, and unavailability of data on important issues. Due to the lack of understanding of the sensitivity of the issue, the success of implementation largely depends on the involvement of the top leadership of state governments. Scientific EDS exercises followed by mega shakeout exercises helped not only the community up to some extent but also mainly helped administration, government agencies in generating awareness of the earthquake and possible risk attached to it.