Trends and Seasonal Variations of Climate, Air Quality, and Mortality in Three Major Cities in Taiwan

Abstract

The interactions among climate change, air pollution, and human health are multiple and complex. Many epidemiological studies in Taiwan have consistently demonstrated the effects of short-term exposures to extreme weather events, particulate matter, and traffic-related air pollutants on a variety of health effects. However, these findings might not explain or predict overall seasonal mortality patterns to provide insights into the drivers of mortality acting on society levels for public health policy and practice. There are very limited studies on seasonality of weather, air pollution, and mortality in Taiwan. The objectives of this study are to evaluate if there are any changes in trends and seasonality of mortality in three major Taiwanese cities from 1991 to 2010 and examine its association with climatic condition and air pollution. Among these major Taiwanese cities, seasonal mortality patterns are similar in two subtropical cities, Taipei and Taichung, compared to another tropical city, Kaohsiung. Taipei had significantly increased trends in most monthly temperature variables and the number of hot days examined during 1991–2010 compared to the other two cities. Winter/summer ratios of mortality only showed a decreased trend in Taipei, but not in Taichung or Kaohsiung. Mean monthly ambient temperature was also found as the most optimal temperature variable for predicting all-cause monthly mortality at all three cities in this study. Seasonal mortality patterns in three cities were with higher levels of deaths from December to March. Trends in air quality are showing mixed patterns over the past two decades. SO2, CO, and NOx concentrations have decreased significantly and steadily, while O3 has significantly increased in recent years. In three major Taiwanese cities, O3 and PM10 are major air pollutants of current concerns. The results of this study showed that monthly mean O3, PM10, and NOx levels and monthly mortality were not closely related, but temperature-related variables were positively associated with monthly mortality among three major Taiwanese cities. Moreover, changes in other socioeconomic and demographic factors may also play a key role in determining seasonality mortality and morbidity and need to be considered in future studies.