An Empirical Study on the Pass-Through Effect of RMB Nominal Effective Exchange Rate on Import Price

Abstract

Starting from ERPT model, the paper decomposes RMB nominal effective exchange rate published in BIS into level and volatility, and analyzes the pass-through effects of RMB nominal effective exchange rate into import price from level and volatility under GARCH model. The conclusions are that, the pass-through effect of RMB nominal effective exchange rate to the level of import price is not complete, and the volatility of RMB nominal effective exchange rate has a negative impact on the volatility of import price and also has a time lag. Error correction mechanism shows that it needs about 8 months for import price to return to a balanced level after the changes of exchange rate.