Narratives of a drought: Exploring resilience in Kenya's Drylands

Abstract

Drylands are complex, dynamic social-ecological systems under threat from potential climate change and land-use changes. Mixed qualitative methods, including participatory observation and informal and semi-structured interviews, have been used to capture narratives of livelihoods and environment in Kajiado District, Kenya, with particular reference to a severe drought event in 2009. Analyses have shown cultural changes to be important processes in responding to system shocks and stresses. A Beliefs-Desires-Intentions agent architecture has been employed in an agent-based model to explore the emerging narratives after the drought, offering a means of focussing on these key processes and their implications for the system. A series of iterative periods of fieldwork have allowed model strategy, parameters and assumptions to be tested and refined with the original research participants. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014.