Impact of food price shocks on vulnerability to poverty: A mathematical programming approach

Abstract

The 2008 price crisis in the world markets for fuel, chemical fertilizer and agricultural commodities came as a shock to both producers and consumers. For farmers in Thailand and in Vietnam, this situation generated opportunities and risks. For agricultural households with a food surplus, higher commodity prices will lead to higher incomes provided price expectations hold and the price ratio of factor to commodity price remains favourable. For food deficit households, however, rising prices reduce their real income and tend to increase the risk of falling into poverty.