Probabilistic adaptive model predictive power pinch analysis (PoPA) energy management approach to uncertainty

Abstract

This paper proposes a probabilistic power pinch analysis (PoPA) approach based on Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) for energy management of hybrid energy systems uncertainty. The systems power grand composite curve is formulated with the chance constraint method to consider load stochasticity. In a predictive control horizon, the power grand composite curve is shaped based on the pinch analysis approach. The robust energy management strategy effected in a control horizon is inferred from the likelihood of a bounded predicted power grand composite curve, violating the pinch. Furthermore, the response of the system using the energy management strategies (EMS) of the proposed method is evaluated against the day-ahead (DA) and adaptive power pinch strategy.