Grand canonical minority game as a sign predictor

Abstract

In this paper the extended model of Minority game (MG), incorporating variable number of agents and therefore called Grand Canonical, is used for prediction. We proved that the best MG-based predictor is constituted by a tremendously degenerated system, when only one agent is involved. The prediction is the most efficient if the agent is equipped with all strategies from the Full Strategy Space. Despite the casual simplicity of the method its usefulness is invaluable in many cases including real problems. The significant power of the method lies in its ability to fast adaptation if λ-GCMG modification is used. The success rate of prediction is sensitive to the properly set memory length. We considered the feasibility of prediction for the Minority and Majority games. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014.