Reliability and availability assessment of a transport system using Dynamic Fault Tree and Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

Ensuring a high level of reliability of the transport system is one of the most important issues related to the proper functioning of this system. It is concerned with the delivery of the transported goods on time and in accordance with recipient's order specification. The means of transport used in the delivery process are exposed to many external factors that may affect the reliability and safety of supply. Therefore, modelling and assessing the reliability of these systems requires the use of appropriate calculation methods that take into account complex scenarios reflecting the conditions of actual operation and maintenance. The presented paper concerns the application of Dynamic Fault Tree (DFT) together with Monte Carlo simulation to assess the selected reliability and availability indicators for the given transport system. The assessment of reliability was done based on the typical probabilistic models for analysis of the time to failure and the time to repair assigned to the selected components. The proposed approach allows detecting the weakest components of the transport system and is the basis for the development of preventive maintenance tasks. The presented model of the transport system can be further developed and adapted to needs of the specific system.