Assessing the likelihood of achieving prototyping benefits in systems acquisition

Abstract

In 2007, John Young, then-Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics, mandated the use of “competitive prototyping” strategies in defense acquisition. Further, Department of Defense Instruction 5000.02 includes considerations for prototyping in the acquisition strategy. A 2017 memorandum circulated by Young lists five prototyping benefits, which are expected to “reduce technical risk, validate designs, validate cost estimates, evaluate manufacturing processes, and refine requirements.” However, a process to assess whether, and to what extent, a prototype will be or has been successful in achieving these benefits is not currently in use by the Department of Defense. Because cost increases and schedule extension downsides are inherent in prototyping, such an assessment is critical. This research proposes an approach for assessing the likelihood of achieving expected prototyping benefits based on identifying the factors yielding these benefits as well as their relative weights.