The real-time predictive content of the KOF Economic Barometer

Abstract

We investigate whether the KOF Economic Barometer – a leading indicator released by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute – is useful for short-term prediction of quarterly year-on-year real GDP growth in Switzerland. Using a real-time data set consisting of historical vintages of GDP data and the leading indicator we find that the model augemented with the KOF Barometer produces more accurate forecasts of the Swiss GDP than purely autoregressive models and consensus forecasts.