A Comparative Evaluation of Objective and Subjective Weather Forecasts in the United States

Abstract

Weather forecasts today are prepared by both objective and subjective methods. Objective methods generally involve the use of numerical (i.e., physical/dynamical) and/or statistical models. These methods are objective in the sense that, for a particular procedure and set of relevant data, the forecasts produced do not depend on a meteorologist’s judgment, although subjectivity is involved in the choice of a procedure and a set of data. Subjective methods, on the other hand, are methods in which the formulation of the forecasts is based at least in part on the judgments of one or more meteorologists. According to these definitions, the official forecasts issued to the general public and specific users by the National Weather Service (NWS) in the United States usually are considered to be subjective forecasts.