Scaling law characterizing the dynamics of the transition of HIV-1 to error catastrophe

Abstract

Increasing themutation rate, μ, of viruses above a threshold, μc , has been predicted to trigger a catastrophic loss of viral genetic information and is being explored as a novel intervention strategy. Here, we examine the dynamics of this transition using stochastic simulations mimicking within-host HIV-1 evolution.Wefind a scaling law governing the characteristic time of the transition: τ ≈ 0.6/ (μ -μc).The lawis robust to variations in underlying evolutionary forces and presents guidelines for treatment of HIV-1 infection with mutagens.Weestimate that many years of treatment would be required before HIV-1 can suffer an error catastrophe.