Phenology modelling and gis applications in pest management: A tool for studying and understanding insect-pest dynamics in the context of global climate change

Abstract

Intensification of agricultural yield losses due to pest aggravation in the context of global climate change has been the key focus of ecological research. In this regard, interest in forecasting models is now days growing radically among entomologists to predict the environmental suitability for new and invading agricultural insect pests. This chapter describes the approaches for development of temperature-based phenology models that helps in understanding insect behaviour and physiology under diverse environmental conditions. A few suitable illustrations are provided on how phenology models can be used for simulating variability in insect development times through stochastic and deterministic simulation functions with inclusion of temperature as a main predictor of insect development. Further, discussions were also included on linking of phenology models with geographic information systems (GIS) for mapping pest population growth potentials according to real-time or interpolated temperature data, as a tool for pest risk assessments in different agro-ecological regions and to support the development of management strategies. The concepts and approaches underlying simulation of age-stage-structured populations using cohort-updating and rate summation principle and the use of geostatistical algorithms integrated in GIS for risk mapping are described briefly.