Decoupling analysis and peak prediction of carbon emission in less developed provinces: A case study of Sichuan province, China

Abstract

With the increasing severity of climate change, the unevenness of economic development has resulted in the heterogeneity of carbon peaking in different regions. Under the dual-carbon target strategy, the peak research in China's less developed provinces is significant. This study uses the emission factor method to calculate the carbon emission inventory of an economically underdeveloped province (Sichuan) and 15 major cities from 2010 to 2020. The carbon emissions in the Sichuan province showed a fluctuating trend, and the emission intensity decreased year by year. This study analyzes the decoupling effect of carbon emissions and GDP gold content (GDPgc). Sichuan's economy and carbon emissions have not been strongly decoupled. Finally, under three scenarios, it forecasts the peak carbon emissions in Sichuan province. Sichuan province will peak in 2029 (361.74 million tons) under the simultaneous peak scenario. This study provides an important reference for formulating and implementing energy-saving and emission-reduction policies in relatively poor regions. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.