A Highly Accurate Forest Fire Prediction Model Based on an Improved Dynamic Convolutional Neural Network

Abstract

In this work, an improved dynamic convolutional neural network (DCNN) model to accurately identify the risk of a forest fire was established based on the traditional DCNN model. First, the DCNN network model was trained in combination with transfer learning, and multiple pre-trained DCNN models were used to extract features from forest fire images. Second, principal component analysis (PCA) reconstruction technology was used in the appropriate subspace. The constructed 15-layer forest fire risk identification DCNN model named “DCN_Fire” could accurately identify core fire insurance areas. Moreover, the original and enhanced image data sets were used to evaluate the impact of data enhancement on the model’s accuracy. The traditional DCNN model was improved and the recognition speed and accuracy were compared and analyzed with the other three DCNN model algorithms with different architectures. The difficulty of using DCNN to monitor forest fire risk was solved, and the model’s detection accuracy was further improved. The true positive rate was 7.41% and the false positive rate was 4.8%. When verifying the impact of different batch sizes and loss rates on verification accuracy, the loss rate of the DCN_Fire model of 0.5 and the batch size of 50 provided the optimal value for verification accuracy (0.983). The analysis results showed that the improved DCNN model had excellent recognition speed and accuracy and could accurately recognize and classify the risk of a forest fire under natural light conditions, thereby providing a technical reference for preventing and tackling forest fires.