An analysis of threats and factors that predict trends in Canadian vertebrates designated as at-risk

Abstract

The identification of factors that predict trends in population abundance is critical to formulate successful conservation strategies. Here, we explore population trends of Canadian vertebrates assessed as "at-risk" by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada and the threats affecting these trends using data from the Canadian Living Planet Index. We investigate how threat profiles-the combination of threats for a given species-vary among species and taxonomic groups. We then investigate threat profile as a predictor of temporal trends-both exclusively and in combination with additional biotic and abiotic factors. Species had 5.06 (±2.77) threats listed on average, and biological resource use (BRU) was the most frequently cited. Our analysis also revealed an association between taxonomic group and population trends, as measured by the proportion of annual increases (years with a positive interannual change). By contrast, the predictive power of threat profile was poor. This analysis yielded some useful insight for conservation action, particularly the prioritization of abating BRU. However, the predictive models were not as meaningful as originally anticipated. We provide recommendations on methodological improvements to advance the understanding of factors that predict trends in population abundance for prioritizing conservation action.