Climate Change, Security Risks and Conflict Reduction in Africa

Abstract

According to the leading expert body on climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), evidence of global warming and climate change is increasing, and the severity of impacts will rise accordingly. The International Disaster Database (EM–DAT) estimates that over 22 million people were affected by natural disasters in West Africa in 2010–2011. Climate change is likely to translate into more frequent and severe weather-related shocks for this region alongside rising temperatures and increasingly irregular rainfall (IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, 2007 and Fifth Assessment Report, 2014). These environmental impacts of climate change pose a challenge to vulnerable societies by, among other factors, reducing water availability (by up to 40 % of current levels) and disturbing food production systems. They are consequently very likely to contribute to the destabilization of the human security of vulnerable communities, endangering the ways of life of human beings and inducing conflicts. A surge in conflicts and violence could be expected. In West Africa, farmers and herders belong to the most vulnerable groups, as they are highly dependent on natural resources and historically prone to come into conflict with each other. Increasing climate change could lead them to compete violently over natural resources such as land and water. This book consequently focuses on conflicts between farmers and herders living in the climate-change-impacted area of West Africa. This study relies on the rich scholarly literature on the linkages between environment and conflict, human and environmental security, conflict reduction, and the management of common-pool resources. Drawing on these theories, the study demonstrates that, under certain circumstances, climate change can destabilize human security and that the agro-pastoral communities of West Africa are likely to experience such security threats. However, fundamental importance is given to the social, economic and political factors mediating environmental changes. It is argued that these factors underpin the occurrence and level of conflict. Their influence on conflict escalation is broadly recognized, but this research shows that political factors also contribute to reducing conflict. It is thus proposed that political factors (policies and institutions) can reduce climate-change-induced or -aggravated conflicts between farmers and herders. The explanatory potential of this thesis is tested against three hypotheses: (1) the implementation of integration policies by the central state reduces conflict; (2) equitable access to land tenure reduces conflict; and (3) a decentralized and participative political system reduces conflict. In order to determine if political factors can reduce agro-pastoral conflicts, a qualitative case study of conflicts between FulBe pastoralists and various groups of sedentary farmers is conducted over a timespan of forty years (1960-2000) for three neighbouring countries of West Africa: Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. The analysis confirms that politicalfactors have the potential to reduce these conflicts. The evidence strongly supports two of the three hypotheses: lower levels of conflict are noted when integration policies are implemented and land rights are distributed equitably between users. Evidence is less conclusive for the last hypothesis: both centralized and decentralized authorities can either fuel or mitigate conflicts. However, participative processes seem to reduce conflicts when implemented in a truly inclusive manner. These conclusions support an optimistic assessment, according to which climate change is a significant challenge for vulnerable societies but will not necessarily lead to a more violent world if an appropriate political and institutional framework is established.