The effect of the future of nuclear energy on the decarbonization pathways and continuous supply of electricity in the European Union

Abstract

Nuclear power plants play an extremely important role in the European Union's electricity supply. Nuclear power is the largest carbon neutral source of electricity and the most important baseload electricity producer in Europe. The existing 167 units represent a capacity of 148 000 MW, which in 2022 accounted for 22 % of the electricity generated in the EU-27. In most countries, there are plans to keep nuclear power plants in operation and then extend their lifetime. In most of the European countries that already have nuclear power the construction of new units is planned, as well as in Poland, which is a nuclear newcomer. Meanwhile, Germany has phased out nuclear power in 2023 and this move is also being considered in other countries. In this article, we address the question of what the impact would be in the EU member states if nuclear power plants were to be phased out and replaced by solar, wind and gas-fired capacities. To do this, energy strategies for EU countries with nuclear power were analysed, hourly resolution electricity supply models were constructed for 15 countries and the main electricity supply characteristics for year 2030 and 2040 were assessed for three different power plant portfolios in each country under study. For the different scenarios, specific results are presented on the primary energy mix, CO2 emissions, natural gas demand and high time resolution characteristics of electricity supply.