Determination of the original probability of the target distributing function for the accidental pollution sources in a drainage area

Abstract

Based on indoor experiment, the water quality model of non-persistent pollutants in paroxysmal pollution accidents of Yibin section of Yangtse River is established. Through fitting the diffusing concentration of improper pollution discharging and the actual monitoring value, the original probability of accidental pollution sources are obtained. And the original probability is modified by searching action, therefore the original probability is progressed to posteriori probability, which provided a scientific and objective method to determine the target distribution function of the search model of accidental pollution sources in a drainage area. © 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.