Development and Clinical Translation of a Perioperative Nomogram Incorporating Free Fatty Acids to Predict Poor Outcome of Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Following Endovascular Treatment

Abstract

Objective: A reliable prediction of clinical outcome is important for clinicians to set appropriate medical strategies in treating patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). In this study, we aim to establish a perioperative nomogram involving serum lipid signatures for predicting poor outcomes at 3 months in patients with aSAH following endovascular therapy. Methods: Data of patients with aSAH receiving endovascular therapy were collected. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed to screen independent predictors related to unfavorable outcomes defined by the modified Rankin Scale (mFS) ≥3. A novel nomogram based on these significant features was conducted. The clinical application of this nomogram was assessed by decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve. Results: A total number of patients included in this study were 213 (average age 58.9 years, 65.7% female), representing a poor 3-month outcome rate of 48.8%. Free fatty acid (FFA) levels on admission were efficient in predicting poor outcomes compared with other contents in serum lipids. Univariable and multivariable analyses revealed advanced age (P = 0.034), poor Hunt Hess (HH) (odds ratio, OR = 3.7, P < 0.001) and mFS (OR = 6.0, P < 0.001), aneurysms in the posterior circulation (OR = 4.4, P = 0.019), and higher FFA levels on admission (OR = 3.1, P = 0.021) were negative independent predictors of poor 3 months outcome. A novel nomogram composed of these significant features presented a concordance index (C-index) of 0.831 while the practical benefit was validated by DCA and clinical impact curve. An online calculator based on R programming promoted the clinical application of this nomogram. Conclusion: Nomogram involving age, HH grade, mFS, aneurysm location, and serum FFA levels was sufficient to provide an individualized prediction of 3-month poor outcome for each patient with aSAH who underwent endovascular therapy.