Demonstration of the cascadia G-FAST geodetic earthquake early warning system for the Nisqually, Washington, Earthquake

Abstract

A prototype earthquake early warning (EEW) system is currently in development in the Pacific Northwest. We have taken a two-stage approach to EEW: (1) detection and initial characterization using strong-motion data with the Earthquake Alarm Systems (ElarmS) seismic early warning package and (2) the triggering of geodetic modeling modules using Global Navigation Satellite Systems data that help provide robust estimates of large-magnitude earthquakes. In this article we demonstrate the performance of the latter, the Geodetic First Approximation of Size and Time (G-FAST) geodetic early warning system, using simulated displacements for the 2001 Mw 6.8 Nisqually earthquake. We test the timing and performance of the two G-FAST source characterization modules, peak ground displacement scaling, and Centroid Moment Tensor-driven finite-fault-slip modeling under ideal, latent, noisy, and incomplete data conditions. We show good agreement between source parameters computed by G-FAST with previously published and postprocessed seismic and geodetic results for all test cases and modeling modules, and we discuss the challenges with integration into the U.S. Geological Survey's ShakeAlert EEW system.