Reflection on population forecasting: from predictions to prospective analysis

Abstract

The notion of predictability, central to the conventional meaning given to projection, is de-emphasized, and that of analytical credibility stressed. The usefulness of a projection is to be judged by the extent to which it contributes to decisions shaping the future. The author explores the epistemological base for this reconceptualization of the projection as an instrument of “creating” rather than “discovering” the future. To this end, he turns to the contemporary developments in the philosophy of science.