Evaluation and Prediction of Ecological Sustainability in the Upper Reaches of the Yellow River Based on Improved Three-Dimensional Ecological Footprint Model

Abstract

Ecological footprint is an important method for regional sustainable assessment. Scientific assessment of the ecological sustainability of the upper reaches of the Yellow River is of great significance to the realization of a win–win situation for the ecological environment protection and economic development of the entire Yellow River basin. Based on the improved three-dimensional ecological footprint model, this paper measures and spatially portrays the ecological footprint per capita depth (EFdepth), ecological footprint per capita size (EFsize), and ecological footprint per capita 3D (per capita EF3D) of the upper Yellow River region from 2011 to 2020. Then, the ecological footprint diversity index (EFDI), integrated land stress index (Icomprehensive), ecological stress index (ETI), and ecological coordination coefficient (ECC) are used to evaluate its ecological safety and sustainability. The results of the study indicate that: (1) From 2011 to 2020, the three-dimensional ecological footprint of all provinces and regions in the upper reaches of the Yellow River was in a fluctuating upward trend as a whole, and NMG had the highest growth, from 2.6256 hm2/person to 3.3163 hm2/person, with an average annual growth rate of 2.36%. (2) In the past 10 years, the ETI index of the upper reaches of the Yellow River increased from 2.13 in 2011 to 3.28 in 2020, which is a serious insecurity. The EFDI index fluctuates slightly, but increases year by year. (3) The capital flow occupancy rate of the upper reaches of the Yellow River has been above 86.67%, and fluctuated during the study period, reaching a peak of 88.61% in 2020. (4) In the four periods, the number of land comprehensive pressure states and ecological security pressure states of the provinces and regions in the upper reaches of the Yellow River show a distribution pattern that the northeast region is better than the southwest region. This study is expected to provide scientific reference for land use in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, building the ecological security barrier of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau, and promoting sustainable socio-economic development.