Analyzing the Contribution of Human Mobility to Changes in Air Pollutants: Insights from the COVID-19 Lockdown in Wuhan

Abstract

During the COVID-19 lockdown in Wuhan, transportation, industrial production and other human activities declined significantly, as did the NO2 concentration. In order to assess the relative contributions of different factors to reductions in air pollutants, we implemented sensitivity experiments by Random Forest (RF) models, with the comparison of the contributions of meteorological conditions, human mobility, and emissions from industry and households between different periods. In addition, we conducted scenario analyses to suggest an appropriate limit for control of human mobility. Different mechanisms for air pollutants were shown in the pre-pandemic, pre-lockdown, lockdown, and post-pandemic periods. Wind speed and the Within-city Migration index, representing intra-city mobility intensity, were excluded from stepwise multiple linear models in the pre-lockdown and lockdown periods. The results of sensitivity experiments show that, in the COVID-19 lockdown period, 73.3% of the reduction can be attributed to decreased human mobility. In the post-pandemic period, meteorological conditions control about 42.2% of the decrease, and emissions from industry and households control 40.0%, while human mobility only contributes 17.8%. The results of the scenario analysis suggest that the priority of restriction should be given to human mobility within the city than other kinds of human mobility. The reduction in the NO2 concentration tends to be smaller when human mobility within the city decreases by more than 70%. A limit of less than 40% on the control of the human mobility can achieve a better effect, especially in cities with severe traffic pollution.