Influencing factors and quantitative analysis of community resilience to flash floods

Abstract

Based on the characteristics of flash floods such as extensiveness, abruptness, and destructiveness, the current focus of disaster prevention and mitigation is to assess the resilience of communities in regions with frequent flash flood disasters, so as to enhance the disaster response level. This study proposed a set of multidisciplinary integrated methods: 1) The quantitative transmission relationship among the indicators of the community resilience evaluation system under the impact of flash floods was clarified by examining the mediating effect. 2) The coupling decision mathematical model of the decision laboratory model and the interpretive structure model was established, the multilevel interpretive structure model of the influencing factors of community resilience was constructed, and then the differential influencing factors of community resilience were analyzed. 3) Information diffusion method was used to quantitatively analyze and rank the community resilience of flash flood disasters. Taking the flood-prone areas in northern Guangdong Province as the research area, this study analyzed three types of communities—that is, towns, villages, and peri-urban areas, and the results show that the community resilience indicator system from the perspective of flash flood impact is a multi-dimensional and multi-layered complex network system, including five aspects: Environmental, social, psychological, institutional, and communication. The direct influencing factors of community resilience to different types of disasters are different. The construction of water supply and drainage facilities and flood emergency drills, as the fundamental influencing factors of community resilience, play an essential role in enhancing community resilience to flash floods. Since most of the surveyed villages are located in areas with frequent flash floods, residents have a high awareness of disaster prevention and mitigation and the villages show higher community resilience than the sample towns and peri-urban areas. The study can provide an important reference for improving the resilience of communities in the flood-prone areas in northern Guangdong and their disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities. This comprehensive analysis method can also provide strategic support to the refinement of disaster prevention and mitigation of other types of disasters.