Prediction Dynamics in Cotton Aphid Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Multispectral Images and Vegetation Indices

Abstract

Cotton harvest can be increased by having real-time information on the state of cotton aphid populations. However, traditional cotton aphid monitoring relies on ground sample methods supported by models such as linear regression, resulting in low forecast accuracy. Therefore, this paper purposes to enhance the precision of the remote sensing prediction model by investigating the cotton aphid prediction model construction approach. We explored the effectiveness of the XGBoost algorithm combined with the GWO algorithm and SVR method for cotton aphid prediction relying on vegetation indices derived from UAV multispectral photography. Originally, 12 indices related to cotton aphids were calculated by UAV multispectral reflectance. Additionally, the optimal index combination for pest prediction was determined utilizing analysis of correction and two-way ANOVA, combined with the XGBoost algorithm. Furthermore, a pest prevalence prediction model for cotton aphids was constructed via the SVR methodology associated with the optimal catalog combination, and the model was optimized using the GWO algorithm. Compared with the seven algorithms, experimental results demonstrate that the MSE and MAE of the XGBoost-GWO-SVR model are reduced by 90.20% and 70.36% (SVR), 90.14% and 70.26% (XGBoost-SVR), 7.47% and 0.14% (XGBoost-GA-SVR), 5.80% and 0.11% (XGBoost-PSO-SVR), 12.06% and 58.95% (LR), and 84.77% and 89.22% (BPNN), whereas the R2 is increased by 22.5% (SVR and XGBoost-SVR), 0.3% (LR), and 12.51% (BPNN). The R2 of the prediction model of XGBoost-SVR combined with GWO, PSO, and GA is not significantly different. Among these models, the XGBoost-GWO-SVR obtained the highest R2 of 0.980 and the lowest MAE of 2.838.