Using a coupled modelling system to examine the impacts of increased corn production on groundwater quality and human health

Abstract

Attributing nitrogen (N) in the environment to emissions from agricultural management practices is difficult because of the complex and inter-related chemical and biological reactions associated with N and its cascading effects across land, air and water. Such analyses are critical, however, in understanding the benefits and disbenefits associated with environmental management options. Coupled physical models present new opportunities to understand relationships among environmental variables across multiple sources, pathways and scenarios. Because they trace the environmental fate of pollutant concentrations found in the environment through first-principle physical and chemical processes, they shed new light on these complex interactions and how they will respond under various management scenarios. In this study, we use a coupled modeling system to holistically assess the impacts of increased corn production on groundwater and air quality. In particular, we show how the models provide new information on the drivers for contamination in groundwater and air, and then relate pollutant concentration changes attributed to potential changes in corn production between 2002 and 2022 to health and cost outcomes.