Public debt, inflation, and the Fiscal Theory of Price Level in emerging markets: the case of Paraguay

Abstract

This paper investigates the link between public debt and inflation considering the Fiscal Theory of Price Level (FTPL) with data from Paraguay. Unlike other studies, the paper also considers this relationship according to the monetary regime. The fiscal policy actions are evaluated in a monetary structural vector autoregressive combined with fiscal variables and interpreted using impulse responses. The results highlight the importance of differentiating the monetary regime while conducting the analysis. In the monetary aggregate regime with an active fiscal policy, higher public debt shocks produce inflationary pressures. Conversely, with the inflation targeting sample estimation, inflation follows its targeted path.