Medium-Term Electricity Generation with Fuzzy Availability

Abstract

As it is well-known, generation plants availability has a significant impact on the total energy production injected into a power system. This means that a sensible generating system model should be able to represent the availability uncertainty to obtain better solutions than deterministic approaches. In this paper possibility distributions have been used to model the uncertainty of the generation plants availability, when forced outages are present during their operation. To solve the new possibilistic formulation that results, the main resolution approaches in the literature have been applied, leading always to equivalent but larger crisp systems that can be solved with commercial resolution softwares. A real case study of the current Spanish electricity market is used to analyze the main differences of these approaches on the total generated power and profits.