YOUNG CHILDREN’S PROBABILISTIC AND STATISTICAL REASONING IN THE CONTEXT OF INFORMAL INFERENTIAL REASONING

Abstract

This paper reports the statistical and probabilistic reasoning of young children in terms of randomness, variability, and data representations in the context of informal inferential reasoning (IIR). Using the IIR approach, a task was designed and conducted one-on-one with 28 children aged 5 to 6 years old, in a case study setting. The researcher used a voice recorder during interviews, took photos, and recorded field notes. The data were analyzed according to the principles of informal inferential reasoning, which are generalizing beyond the data, using data as evidence for generalizing, and using probabilistic language to acknowledge the uncertainty embedded in the data. The findings indicate that young children are capable of making informal inferences from a sample space, describing event probability, and constructing bar graph and pie chart data representations.