COVID-19 and Canadian farmland markets in 2020

Abstract

Early evidence suggests that Canadian farmland values increased in 2020. Farming returns were not negatively impacted by COVID-19 and it appears as though farming returns will be strong into 2021. Low interest rates in 2020 contributed to substantial farmland value increases in the last half of 2020. There is some evidence that the development component of farmland values increased in 2020. The future consequences of COVID-19 on farmland values are unclear. Some economists suggest that future inflationary risks have increased. A return to inflation rates comparable to those experienced in the 1970s is unlikely, but if increased inflation does materialize it will put upward pressure on farmland values, while increases in nominal and real interest rates will push farmland values down.