Ludwig-maximilians-universität münchen (lmu munich)

Abstract

GLOWA-Danube, in order to study the hydrological impact of climate change in the Upper Danube basin, relies on a variety of meteorological driver datasets, which represent uncertainty in climate change. This chapter demonstrates the application of the statistical climate generator (Chap. 49) to produce climate variants from the given climate trends (Chap. 48). Climate variants in GLOWADanube are statistically equivalent realisations of a climate trend with defi ned properties and probabilities. Stakeholder discussion resulted in the selection of four climate variants for each of the four climate trends. They represent average warming, fi ve consecutive dry years, warm winters or hot summers. The variants are analysed for their individual behaviour and usefulness for analysing adaptation options.