Probabilistic study of the impact on the network equipment of changing load profiles in modern low voltage grids

Abstract

The paper proposes a measurement-based method for the long-term analysis of the low-voltage (LV) distribution network. This work focuses on line power flows susceptible to cause a premature deterioration of cables and on power exchanged at the MV/LV transformer that can potentially induce adverse repercussions on its lifetime. Such estimations are indeed essential as the distribution systems are more and more frequently subject to stress conditions due to the increase of photovoltaic (PV) installations and significant loads such as electric vehicles. In this context, using a probabilistic approach is more beneficial than worst-case scenarios that yield much more restrictive conclusions. The approach is implemented in a pseudo-sequential Monte-Carlo environment and is based on quarter-hourly energy flows recorded by smart meters installed at some LV customers of the Belgian distribution network. These devices are currently located in some scarce selected areas but the penetration rate is expected to massively grow in the future. With the increase of collected measurements, this analysis tool will therefore allow Distribution System Operators (DSOs) to accurately assess important parameters for a secure and efficient operation of the network.