A New Explication of Minimum Variable Sets (MVS) for Building Energy Prediction Based on Building Performance Database

Abstract

Building energy simulation plays a significant role in buildings, with applications such as building performance evaluation, retrofit decisions and the optimization of building operations. However, the wide range of model inputs has limited much research into empirically customized case studies due to the insufficient availability of data inputs or the lack of systematic feature selection of key inputs. To address this gap, this study proposes the concept of minimum variable sets (MVSs) for building energy-prediction models to improve the general applicability of building energy prediction using forward simulation. An MVS, in this paper, refers to a variable set that contains the most indispensable energy-related variables/features for annual building energy prediction. This study developed MVSs for office buildings by applying feature engineering algorithms to a Building Performance Database (BPD), which was established by integrating the design of experiments (DoE) method with high-dimensional data-space metrics, as well as parallel simulation. Supervised feature dimension reduction methods and multiple statistical criteria were adopted to choose different numbers of indispensable variables from the primary 16 building variables. The hierarchical MVSs that consist of the selected variables are characterized by the most influential features for building energy prediction, with certain requirements for prediction accuracy. To further improve the feasibility of MVSs, this study utilized two separate office buildings located in Shanghai and California as validation cases and provided comparable prediction accuracies across different sizes of MVS. The results showed that the MVS that has 12 variables has higher prediction accuracy than that which has 9 variables, followed by that which has 7 variables. Finally, the quantitatively hierarchical correlations between different sizes of MVS with different prediction accuracies for annual building energy could provide potential support for reasonable decision-making regarding building energy model variables, especially when comprehensive consideration is needed of the limited cost and data availability, and the acceptable accuracy of building energy.