The risk of foot-and-mouth disease becoming endemic in a wildlife host is driven by spatial extent rather than density

Abstract

In the past 20 years, free living populations of feral wild boar have re-established in several locations across the UK. One of the largest populations is in the Forest of Dean where numbers have been steadily increasing since monitoring began in 2008, with estimates from 2016 reporting a population of more than 1500. Feral wild boar have significant ecological and environmental impacts and may present a serious epidemiological risk to neighbouring livestock as they are a vector for a number of important livestock diseases. This includes foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) which is currently absent from the UK. We developed an individual-based spatially explicit modelling approach to simulate feral wild boar populations in the Forest of Dean (England, UK) and use it to explore whether current or future populations might be sufficient to produce long-lived outbreaks of FMD in this potential wildlife reservoir. Our findings suggest that if you exclude the spread from feral wild boar to other susceptible species, the current population of boar is insufficient to maintain FMD, with 95% of unmanaged simulations indicating disease burn-out within a year (not involving boar management specifically for disease). However, if boar are allowed to spread beyond their current range into the adjacent landscape, they might maintain a self-sustaining reservoir of infection for the disease.