Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures

127Citations
Citations of this article
183Readers
Mendeley users who have this article in their library.

This article is free to access.

Abstract

The level of agreement between climate model simulations and observed surface temperature change is a topic of scientific and policy concern. While the Earth system continues to accumulate energy due to anthropogenic and other radiative forcings, estimates of recent surface temperature evolution fall at the lower end of climate model projections. Global mean temperatures from climate model simulations are typically calculated using surface air temperatures, while the corresponding observations are based on a blend of air and sea surface temperatures. This work quantifies a systematic bias in model-observation comparisons arising from differential warming rates between sea surface temperatures and surface air temperatures over oceans. A further bias arises from the treatment of temperatures in regions where the sea ice boundary has changed. Applying the methodology of the HadCRUT4 record to climate model temperature fields accounts for 38% of the discrepancy in trend between models and observations over the period 1975-2014.

Author supplied keywords

Cite

CITATION STYLE

APA

Cowtan, K., Hausfather, Z., Hawkins, E., Jacobs, P., Mann, M. E., Miller, S. K., … Way, R. G. (2015). Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(15), 6526–6534. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064888

Register to see more suggestions

Mendeley helps you to discover research relevant for your work.

Already have an account?

Save time finding and organizing research with Mendeley

Sign up for free